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Analysis

Has Turkey’s Erdogan Felt The Danger?

Tuesday 2 June 2020
Has Turkey’s Erdogan Felt The Danger?

Alwaght- President Recept Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey recently at a video conference with the provincial managers of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) issued an order for all of the provincial branches of the party to prepare for the election. Erdogan's order means that possibly in the near future Turkey will hold early elections. But what is causing the Turkish leader to make such an order? 

The AKP preparation for new parliamentary election comes while over the past months, many incidents took place just against the will of Erdogan, including defection from the AKP of several figures close to the president. 

The AKP has been the unchallenged holder of power in the Turkish administration and parliament since 2002. But now the party's status is challenged. It seems that Erdogan seeks to build a bridge to the victory in the next elections using the self-claimed wins in the Syrian and Libyan developments and also fight against the coronavirus pandemic. 

The big opposition unity to end Erdoganism 

Since the beginning of 2002, Erdogan has never been in dire straits as now when it comes to the possibility of a new victory for his party in the election. In all of the past elections, the AKP won the elections either independently by securing over 50 percent of the votes in association with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). 

But now it seems that the opposition parties have developed a strong resolution to end Erdogan and his party’s power. Possibly, one day their coalition will form a new government in Turkey. Currently, all of the Turkish parties, excluding the MHP led by Devlet Bahceli, fall in the category of Erdogan opponents. This point of unity looks to be enough to see Erdogan unseating. On top of all parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) is the most important rival to the AKP. It can relatively secure 20 to 30 percent of the votes. But the significant part of the opposition coalition is the Erdogan’s old friends. 

In fact, the formation of the Future Party by the former Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Development and Democracy Party (DEVA) by the Erdogan’s former economy czar Ali Babacan after the defection of the two figures from the body of the AKP encouraged considerable activity and dynamism among the opposition body, to an extent that with regard to the recent changes in the Turkish political developments change of the organization of the opposition coalition is an unavoidable issue. 

Now it is very likely that the Future Party and DEVA will coalesce with the CHP to beat Erdogan in the next election. 

Additionally, the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is another political actor that can secure a share in ending Erdogan’s rule by winning at least 10 percent of the parliamentary votes. 

Also, we can look at the votes of the iYi Party led by Meral Aksener. Although the party is a defector of the MHP and has considerable nationalist tendencies, it is poised to join the opposition forces to bring down Erdogan from the power. 

A collection of the developments and stances by the political parties falling in the opposition camp shows that in the next parliamentary election a comprehensive unity of the opposition against the ruling party is likely. It seems that Erdogan from now has heard the warning bells. His party may no longer be able to hold the majority in the parliament and the administrative power after nearly two decades of unchallenged rule. 

Challenging Erdogan’s presidential seat 

Erdogan organized a referendum in 2017 to change the parliamentary to a presidential political system in a bid to save his power. Actually, by this move, he thought that even if he loses the parliamentary majority he can resort to the direct vote of the people to keep being the top man of the country’s politics. But now it seems that the situation is never going in his favor. The current conditions taken into account, he could be driven out of the power forever in the 2030 presidential elections. 

Meanwhile, Ekrem Imamoglu, the current mayor of Istanbul and the senior member of CHP, since last year quickly rose to become Erdogan’s rival and is the most possible figure ending Erdogan’s presidency in the next election. The next parliamentary election is of extraordinary significance. If each of Davutoglu or Babacan as Erdogan’s old friends secure a far-reaching victory in the next elections, they can present serious rivals to Erdogan in 2023 vote.

 

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Erdogan Election Presidency Opposition Defection

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