Alwaght | News & Analysis Website

Editor's Choice

News

Most Viewed

Day Week Month

In Focus

World against US Recognizing Al-Quds as Israeli Capital

World against US Recognizing Al-Quds as Israeli Capital

undefined
Myanmar Committing Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing against Rohingya Muslims

Myanmar Committing Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing against Rohingya Muslims

undefined
Awamiyah: Saudi Regime Killing Own Civilians

Awamiyah: Saudi Regime Killing Own Civilians

undefined
Qatar Row Deepens Persian Gulf States Rifts

Qatar Row Deepens Persian Gulf States Rifts

undefined
Ansarullah

Ansarullah

A Zaidi Shiite movement operating in Yemen. It seeks to establish a democratic government in Yemen.
Shiite

Shiite

represents the second largest denomination of Islam. Shiites believe Ali (peace be upon him) to be prophet"s successor in the Caliphate.
Resistance

Resistance

Axis of Resistances refers to countries and movements with common political goal, i.e., resisting against Zionist regime, America and other western powers. Iran, Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Palestine are considered as the Axis of Resistance.
Persian Gulf Cooperation Council

Persian Gulf Cooperation Council

A regional political u n i o n consisting of Arab states of the Persian Gulf, except for Iraq.
ISIS Terrorist Group

ISIS Terrorist Group

A terrorist group that fights against Resistance Axis in Syria and Iraq. It was founded & armed by America and its allies covertly.
Taliban

Taliban

Taliban is a Sunni fundamentalist movement in Afghanistan. It was founded by Mohammed Omar in 1994.
  Wahhabism & Extremism

Wahhabism & Extremism

Wahhabism is an extremist pseudo-Sunni movement, which labels non-Wahhabi Muslims as apostates thus paving the way for their bloodshed.
Kurds

Kurds

Kurds are an ethnic group in the Middle East, mostly inhabiting a region, which spans adjacent parts of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. They are an Iranian people and speak the Kurdish languages, which form a subgroup of the Northwestern Iranian branch of Iranian languages.
NATO

NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance based on the North Atlantic Treaty which was signed on 4 April 1949.
Islamic Awakening

Islamic Awakening

Refers to a revival of the Islam throughout the world, that began in 1979 by Iranian Revolution that established an Islamic republic.
Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda

A militant Sunni organization founded by Osama bin Laden at some point between 1988 and 1989
New node

New node

Map of  Latest Battlefield Developments in Syria and Iraq on
alwaght.com
Analysis

How will ISIS Continue Life once It Loses Ground in Syria, Iraq?

Friday 24 March 2017
How will ISIS Continue Life once It Loses Ground in Syria, Iraq?

Related Content

ISIS's Future Ideology; Maintaining Caliphate

Where Does ISIS’s Ideology Stem From?

Alwaght- Upon arrival of this year, the speculations and debates about the future of the ISIS terrorist group in the West Asia region, and particularly in its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, became more heated. Now that operations to retake Iraq’s Mosul and Syria’s Raqqa are approaching their final stages, the whole parties engaged in the battle are underscoring the fact that the terrorist group is drawing its last breath in the two crisis-hit countries.

Launching two major anti-ISIS assaults, one ordered on October 17 last year by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to recapture the northern city of Mosul and the other started on December 5 last year by the US-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) to retake Raqqa which is the so-called capital of the self-proclaimed ISIS caliphate, pinpoint the fact that in near future ISIS will see its obliteration in Syria and Iraq.

This, however, gives rise to some questions: will eradicating the so-called caliphate, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, mean end of ISIS in the region? Under what labels will it resurface once it continues life in both Syria and Iraq after losing its now-held territories? 

The widely obvious and agreed-upon point is that taking back territories from the terrorist group by the national Iraqi and Syrian forces by no means represents a full destruction of ISIS, and that its militants will reorganize and exist in a new face.

The three scenarios for ISIS future existence

1. Survival under guerrilla groups

The first expected scenario is survival of ISIS caliphate of ISIS terrorists in smaller guerrilla factions. At the end of the war to reclaim the ISIS-held areas across Iraq and Syria, certainly a large number of the terrorists will survive, with a lot of guns at their disposal. In this case, the most preferred option for them is launching their erosive guerrilla offensives against the central governments of the two nations, especially that they own both the necessary weapons as well as the battlefield experience to take action. They will possibly take cue from Afghanistan's Taliban and the anti-Turkish PKK.

However, perhaps it is so easy for ISIS to survive under guerrilla groups when it comes to holding its own military potentials, fighters, and the power to organize, but the issue should not be disregarded that a majority of ISIS-held areas of Syria and Iraq are deserts. This bars ISIS from effectively flexing its muscles to the Syrian and Iraqi governments as a guerrilla force. To put it differently, if the remaining ISIS militants cannot reach the mountainous and impassable areas, which are necessary for a guerrilla force to hide in and operate from, they will fail to begin their guerrilla fight. For instance, the PKK, an anti-Ankara Kurdish militant force, continues to live on to date because after launching its armed conflict against Turkey since 1983 it managed to seize control of the Qandil and Ararat mountains on the Turkish borders. Even heaviest Turkish army’s military campaigns have failed to destroy the militant group. With all these details in mind, it seems that this scenario is less likely to take place.

2. Survival under underground teams for suicide attacks

Still another scenario predicts ISIS survival with aims to carry out suicide operations. The fact must be bought that since mid-2013 the terrorist group has managed to instill “Daeshism” (Daesh is Arabic acronym for ISIS) in the mind of its militants effectively using its propaganda apparatus and special training techniques. This means that even if ISIS is obliterated on the ground in the two countries, Daeshist ideology will remain living among part of Syrians and Iraqis.

The terrorist group has been holding Syrian and Iraqi cities since early 2014. Should the cities be taken back by the national forces from ISIS, it will definitely set up its secret circles. For example, even if Mosul is recaptured by the advancing Iraqi forces, thousands of Daeshists will stay in the city, with commitment to their ideology that will lead them to see suicide assaults as acts of jihad and martyrdom.

Therefore, the likeliest point is that ISIS will survive in Syria and Iraq, not in its today’s organized form but in form of small cells in different Syrian and Iraqi cities, and even in other West Asian countries. They will possibly expand the range of their suicide attacks for more terror operations, and even heavier waves of insecurity may strike these countries. This is clear from now as during the last months, ISIS launched suicide bomb attacks across Iraq, particularly in the capital city of Baghdad, as it has lost ground to the Iraqi forces. This type of ISIS survival might not be limited to West Asia; certainly it will activate its cells in the European countries.

3. Survival through caliphate transfer to other countries

As another scenario, ISIS may seek transporting its rule to other potential Muslim countries once it sustains defeat in Syria and Iraq. Next potential hosting countries, after Syria and Iraq, could be Libya and Afghanistan. In this case ISIS rule does not qualify to be labeled caliphate, however, it can keep the “Islamic state” title. This scenario is likely to a large extent. Actually, ISIS can tighten its rule on a restricted part of some Muslim countries. But this restriction does not mean ISIS hands will be tied for activity. Daeshism is now deep-rooted enough in West Asia and North Africa that will remain alive for next several decades.

So any idea about end of ISIS will only mean removing it organizationally, because as long as there exist the Sunni countries in the world, where there are minds prone to ISIS ideology, Daeshism will continue living under different forms.

Tags :

ISIS Mosul Operation Syria Terror Attacks Daeshism

Comments
Name :
Email :
* Text :
Send

Gallery

Photo

Film

Israeli Regime Demolishes House of Palestinian in West Bank Village

Israeli Regime Demolishes House of Palestinian in West Bank Village